Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
